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Can you name the Schools which have performed best and worst in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tourney, given their seeds?
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Correctly named schools will show up below
Answers do not have to be guessed in order
See Comment for Full Explanation
Expected # of Wins is the average number of wins by all teams with the same seed since 1985. Teams are ranked in order by (Actual Wins)-(Expected Wins). For full methodology, see the first comment.
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Overperformers (Actual Wins/Expected Wins)
Underperformers (Actual Wins/Expected Wins)
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Historically Over/Underseeded NCAA Tourney Teams Quiz
Created Apr 22, 2011 in
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Apr 21st, 2011 at 07:14 GMT
The goal in making this quiz was to compile a list of which teams have won many more or fewer games in the NCAA Tourney then you might expect them to have just by looking at how they were seeded each year. The question is, how many games should you expect, say, a #2 seed to win? Straight chalk would say 3, but is that accurate?
For a team's "expected" performance each year, I used the average performance by all teams with the same seed since 1985. For example, the 108 teams seeded #2 in that time period have collectively won 262 games, an average of 2.43 per team per year. So a #2 seed that won 4 games before losing in the Final Four has effectively performed 1.57 games better than the average #2 seed. Conversely, a #2 seed that was knocked out in the Round of 32 performed 1.43 games *below* average.
Each team's performance over all its tourney appearances was added up, and sorted by total difference to get the ranking shown here. A few minor technicalities:
-Play-in Games: Wins in play-in games/"first four" games count. Each team in a play-in game was given an expected win total equal to half the expected wins of a corresponding seed without a play-in, plus 0.5 (the chance of winning the play-in game itself). For example, the average #11 seed that made the "main" tourney has won 0.54 games. For the VCU/USC play-in game this year, each team was given an expected wins of (0.54/2)+0.5=0.77.
-I treated all #1 seeds as equal, ignoring the recent "overall #1 seeds" (the sample size would have been too small to get a good average performance).
-Games counted even if they were later vacated by the NCAA.
Apr 21st, 2011 at 07:16 GMT
-It turned out (for better or worse) that the overperformers list consisted mostly of the usual suspects. In part this was because of my adding over all tournaments, which magnifies the performance of teams which appear in many tournaments. But the alternative of averaging by the number of Tourney Appearances seemed to have its own problems -- the list was dominated by teams that appeared once or twice in the tourney as a double digit seed, pulled off a first round upset once, and were never heard from again.
-I'd appreciate any comments on the quiz, especially suggestions as to how to make the column labels clearer.
Apr 22nd, 2011 at 04:50 GMT
Wow - you put a lot of work into this quiz. Nice job! Georgia needs an i.
Apr 22nd, 2011 at 05:06 GMT
It looks like, percentage-wise, Butler is by far the king of this list.
Apr 6th, 2012 at 05:50 GMT
Now updated with 2012 numbers. Duke dropped 5 places in one year, and Missouri shot their way up into the right hand column.
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