| "Jeeze, how sad is it that, other than Ken Griffey & Jim Thome, all the new guys on the 2010 list have been identified as steroid users."
While I wouldn't be all that surprised to learn about pretty much any baseball player from the late 90s/early 2000s using steroids, including Griffey and Thome, and I don't actually particularly care all that much, I've never heard Frank Thomas linked to Steroids.
"For 2020, we'll likely see Pujols, Howard, Braun, Fielder and Dunn break into the top 25."
Pujols, almost certainly. Not sure about the rest. Howard, for example, is 31 and has 269 home runs halfway through the 2011 season. Being a bit generous and giving him 20 more home runs this season (he only has 16 so far, but tends to heat up late in the season), that puts him at 289 going into his 32nd year. To get 510 (which is at least what would be required, since Pujols will certainly hit more), that means he'd need to hit 221 from 2012 to 2019. That's almost 28 each season in his 32nd through 39th year. If we assume 35 for the first three years, which seems plausible, that gets him up to 394 by the end of 2014 - but that still leaves him with 116 home runs to hit from 2015 to 2019 - that's *possible*, but I wouldn't say Howard joining the 500 home run club is necessarily *likely*. He basically started too late, as his first full season was when he was 26.
Dunn's in a much better position in terms of what he's done before (he's almost 100 home runs ahead of Howard, and is the same age), but he has only 7 home runs so far this season. He might be starting to break down already. Before this year, I would have said he gets on the list easily - 150 home runs for a 31 year old who regularly hits 40 home runs a year seems pretty easy. But if he's really slowing down, he might finish just short.
Braun really isn't on pace to get 500. Fielder is on pace, but he's also the kind of player who could easily break down around 35 or so.
Pujols is the only safe bet at this point, followed by Dunn, who seems likely to do |
MLB Most Single Season Home Runs 
Home Run Leaders A-Z 
MLB Home Run Leaders (1990s)
