Can you name the Top 40 Most Likely Future Baseball Hall of Famers? by bluewhite

Can you name the Top 40 Most Likely Future Baseball Hall of Famers?

created by bluewhite

Enter a Player (last names acceptable) in the box below
Correctly named Players will show up below
Answers do not have to be guessed in order
Source: Hall of Fame Monitor
"Most Likely" based entirely on statistical accumulation and not considering any external factors such as PED or legal issues. All post-1901 players!
This quiz has not been verified by Sporcle

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Position	Player	Statistics
3B		1994-2011, 2775 H, 629 HR
OF		1987-2007, 2935 H, 762 HR
SS		1995-2011, 3088 H, 240 HR
1B		2001-2011, 2073 H, 445 HR
OF		1989-2010, 2781 H, 630 HR
C		1991-2011, 2844 H, 311 HR
OF		1993-2011, 2574 H, 555 HR
C		1992-2007, 2127 H, 427 HR
OF		1996-2011, 2590 H, 449 HR
OF		2001-2011, 2428 H, 95 HR
OF		1989-2007, 2408 H, 609 HR
1B		1986-2005, 3020 H, 569 HR
1B		1990-2008, 2468, H, 521 HR
1B		1986-2001, 1626 H, 583 HR

Position	Player	Statistics
3B		1993-2011, 2615 H, 454 HR
2B		1988-2007, 3060 H, 291 HR
1B		1997-2011, 2363 H, 347 HR
OF		1988-2009, 2689 H, 509 HR
1B		1991-2011, 2287 H, 604 HR
1B		1991-2005, 2314 H, 449 HR
SP		1984-2007, 354 W, 4672 K
SP		1988-2009, 303 W, 4875 K
SP		1986-2008, 355 W, 3371 K
RP		1995-2011, 75 W, 603 SV
SP		1992-2009, 219 W, 3154 K
SP		1987-2008, 305 W, 2607 K
RP		1993-2010, 61 W, 601 SV
SP		1988-2007, 216 W, 3116 K

Position	Player	Statistics
SP		1988-2009, 213 W, 3084 K
RP		1980-1997, 71 W, 478 SV
SP		1959-1983, 283 W, 2461 K
RP		1995-2010, 47 W, 422 SV
RP		1984-2005, 90 W, 424 SV
SP		1998-2011, 188 W, 1984 K
SP		1995-2010, 240 W, 2251 K
SP		1991-2008, 270 W, 2813 K
SS		1997-2011, 2362 H, 304 HR
OF		1989-2005, 2160 H, 383 HR
OF		1989-2000, 1726 H, 381 HR
1B		1982-1995, 2153 H, 222 HR

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There are 41 comments for this game.
(Warning: comments may contain spoilers)

MLB Most Likely Future HOFers Quiz

by bluewhite

Created Nov 14, 2011 in Sports
Game Plays 1,619

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	swills13:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 03:15 GMT		5 points
	you need to accept "ichiro", and you can't just rely on sporcle accepting last words to work for every player. the quiz currently accepts "jr" as an answer by itself, but not "griffey."

	greasytony:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 03:41 GMT		12 points
	How in the world is Omar Vizquel not on this list? A four decade player with over 2800 hits and counting, along with consistently league-leading dWARs and range factors.

	Wolfie0890:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 05:59 GMT		0 points
	Dislike

	TrivialSteve:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 06:21 GMT		10 points
	Mattingly is not even close. Had he had the same career in Chicago or LA, he would not be in the discussion. He's basically a Steve Garvey+. Where's Jeff Kent?

	tk_go_giants:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 08:53 GMT		2 points
	Miguel Tejada over Jeff Kent and Omar Vizquel is a laugher. Both are surefire HOF players in my opinion.

	bluewhite:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 11:41 GMT		4 points
	I made the corrections on Griffey and Ichiro. The players listed here are the top 40 from baseball-reference.com's Hall of Fame Monitor (not just off the top of my head). By that measure, Vizquel scores well but still below Kent, Cabrera, Dave Parker, Barry Larkin, Juan Gonzalez, and Ted Simmons. Take a look at the leaderboard; it's pretty interesting.

Comment below threshold: show it

	whadams3:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 13:09 GMT		0 points
	No Jack Morris or Alan Trammell? No credibility.

	Longtongs:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 13:31 GMT		9 points
	I realize the creator didn't make up the list, but I was surprised Jeff Kent wasen't there, I'd elect Carlos Delgado over Mattingly too.

	mcmccoy1378:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 14:32 GMT		0 points
	Mattingly, Walker, Belle, Franco, and Kaat?? You put those guys over McGriff, Santo, Murphy, Simmons, and Larkin?? Come on!! Overall its a good list, but I would have included these guys over the first 5 I mentioned.

	JoshiQ:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 14:50 GMT		10 points
	Never been a big fan of giving a guy a lot of flack over a list that he didn't create.

	bluewhite:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 15:23 GMT		5 points
	Flack I can take! I encourage folks to check out the measures put together at baseball reference. Even there, the creator mentions the metric is "most likely" not "most deserving". The calculation states that anyone over 100 has a good chance, anyone over 130 is a "lock". The ones I've included here are 120+.

	twarner50:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 18:18 GMT		4 points
	To all the people asking why Vizquel isn't on this list: despite being a great defensive player, Vizquel was a well-below-average hitter for his career, and was never the best shortstop in the American League (and might not have ever been the second-best either). In career WAR, he would rank 12th of all the players on the probably 2012 Hall of Fame ballot, one slot ahead of Brad Radke (on a related note, someone got voted down for suggesting Jorge Posada, but Posada has a higher career WAR than Vizquel). So while he merits consideration, there are many players on this list (all but a few of them, in fact) who have enjoyed more productive careers than Vizquel. That's why he's not on the list.

	twarner50:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 18:21 GMT		1 point
	Also, I don't think Jim Kaat is on the ballot any longer, so I'm not sure why he's included here, unless you expect the Veterans Committee to elect him. Am I missing something there?

	bluewhite:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 18:50 GMT		1 point
	twarner, the list is entirely drawn from the HOF Monitor list at baseball-reference.com, which scores players on a variety of metrics. I simply pulled the highest-rated players on that list who have not yet been elected. No more complex caluclation than that.

	rats60:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 19:42 GMT		2 points
	This is a good quiz. People don't understand that this list is based on career stats only. Many players are elected based on factors other than their career stats, for example Jackie Robinson scores the same as Tony Pena. Clearly their careers aren't close to equal. Many of these players are not on the ballot yet. Kaat is eligible to be elected by the Veterans Committee and is the highest rated player for them to possibly elect, Kaat scores 130, Santo only scores 88.

	mraithel13:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 20:09 GMT		1 point
	to the Vizquel arguement: he's kinda like Ozzie - but there's only one Ozzie.

	jfpcpa:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 20:29 GMT		1 point
	Nice Job

	ianmez:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 21:58 GMT		3 points
	To improve the quiz, I'd add a category for each player's HOF Monitor "score," either combining that with their position or putting in with their stats. It may be too late now, but it would have been worthwhile to include in a comment some of the criteria used in formulating the scores. It could also help in your explanation to say this is based on a Bill James statistical formula (you sort of alluded to that, but it wasn't very specific).

	ianmez:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 21:59 GMT		1 point
	Also, twaner's comment makes sense given the title of the quiz is "most likely," implying that their actually going to make it. That also injects the idea of character/PED considerations, so you could also consider renaming the quiz to reflect the fact that it's nothing more than a Bill James statistical formula.

	Kloo77:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 22:10 GMT		0 points
	I like the quiz, but one question I have, is why do you have pitchers like Mussina and Pettite listed over hitters like Bernie Williams, Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Martinez, Steve Garvey, etc... (All the hitters I listed had higher scores)

	trivial:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 22:13 GMT		1 point
	If this is purely based on stats, why isn't Pete Rose on the list?

	ILikeIke29:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 22:14 GMT		1 point
	I'm surprised to see Clemens that low...

	DarkPhalanx:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 23:26 GMT		1 point
	It's based on people not yet eligible, I believe, hence no Santo or Rose. I'd like to see a better version of this quiz

	bluewhite:	Nov 15th, 2011 at 23:49 GMT		0 points
	I'd like to see a better version of Jessica Alba. Until then... The people listed might be eligible (Mattingly). It's entirely based on the James metric listed above. The only exception is Rose, who obviously has a great score but is ineligible by commissioner fiat. The valid criticism on here is that some pitchers are included who scored slightly lower than a few hitters not included. I did this to give some balance. In retrospect, I perhaps should have expanded it to 50 and included Kent, etc. Then people would complain that Garciaparra's on there/not on there. What I love about this topic is that people can argue about it no matter what.

	tk_go_giants:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 00:42 GMT		3 points
	@bluewhite When I made the criticism about Tejada over Kent and Vizquel, I didn't realize you didn't create the list--my bad. Some of the rankings made so little sense to me that I assumed it was based on opinion. Good quiz.

	purplebackpack89:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 01:25 GMT		-1 points
	you should mention which were juiced

	trivial:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 02:14 GMT		-1 points
	I really think you should at least make Pete Rose a bonus answer, because the way it's worded ("based entirely on statistical accumulation") he should be included.

	greasytony:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 04:38 GMT		-1 points
	twarner50: Do some research before you comment. First, you're forgetting that Omar Vizquel is still active and even if he retires this offseason won't be eligible for the HOF until 2016. We all know that Gold Gloves aren't the best indication of fielding, but he did win 11 of them, so your argument that he wasn't one of the best shortstops in the league is dubious to say the least. Throw in speed (10 different seasons in the league's top 20) and a decent bat (three seasons in the league's top 10 in hits), and he's a complete player. Say he plays another two seasons and passes the magical 3,000 hit plateau. You'd put him in the HOF then, wouldn't you?

	Kloo77:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 11:27 GMT		2 points
	Bluewhite...I am still wondering why you listed certain pitchers ahead of hitters with higher scores? Was there a method to how you included/excluded certain players? As noted, there are a bunch of hitters who had higher rating scores than Mussina and Pettite, yet were not included. (Miggy, Edgar Martinez, etc.)

	bluewhite:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 12:19 GMT		2 points
	Kloo, this is a valid critique. I wanted some balance between pitchers and hitters. In retrospect, I should have stayed purely with the scoring.

	sbshuffler85:	Nov 16th, 2011 at 12:20 GMT		2 points
	Sorry about my previous comment, didn't realize this was from a source.

	twarner50:	Nov 17th, 2011 at 04:43 GMT		3 points
	@greasytony I actually did do research before making that comment, hence the statistic- I didn't just make that up. I'm not forgetting that Vizquel is still active at all, and I don't see how that is relevant. Yes, he was a very, very good fielder, and he deserves a lot of credit for that, but his glove doesn't make up for his mediocrity at the plate. He had 2 seasons in his career with an OPS above league-average. Two. He also has a career OPS+ of 82, which is pretty bad. His basestealing ability was an asset, but even if you factor in the additional bases to his Total Bases, his SLG still isn't adequate for having just a slightly-above-average OBP for most of his career. I say he was never the best shortstop in the AL because 1. his career coincided with those of Ripken, Jeter, A-Rod, Tejada, and Garciaparra, among others and 2. he ranked in the top 10 in the league in WAR only once in his career. While I would never vote someone into or keep someone out of the HOF for one thing along, I would think that if he was truly that great, he would have posted some more seasons with a star-quality WAR, or at least had a career WAR higher than Tejada, Chase Utley, or Adrian Beltre, especially since Vizquel has played 23 years. I'm not opposed to him being elected to the Hall of Fame someday, but there are many others that I would rather vote in.

	twarner50:	Nov 17th, 2011 at 04:44 GMT		2 points
	On another note, greasytony, Vizquel never led the league in dWAR, and only finished in the top 10 five times.

	midlifecrisis:	Nov 17th, 2011 at 16:34 GMT		3 points
	Good quiz - one question though - why are wins listed for RP Wagner instead of saves?

	Booger:	Nov 18th, 2011 at 18:15 GMT		2 points
	I'm guessing neither Bonds, McGwire, Clemens or Ramirez makes it for a while - a long while.

	luke78:	Nov 19th, 2011 at 02:11 GMT		1 point
	some of these guys are no longer on the ballot, therefore they are NOT likely to make the hall. @twarner, you seem to forget about ozzie smith getting into the hall pretty easily. his ops+ when he retired after 19 seasons was an 87, vizquel after 19 seasons was an 84, with a higher avg than smith, and more hits.

	EAGLESPHILLIES:	Nov 20th, 2011 at 14:43 GMT		1 point
	McGwire admitted he used drugs, Manny used drugs and Sosa was tested positive for drugs so they don't have much of a chance. Plus this is a game of opinion.

	twarner50:	Nov 26th, 2011 at 15:33 GMT		1 point
	@luke78 Smith was also the best NL shortstop of his era, and, in all likelihood, the best defensive shortstop of the modern (post-dead ball) era. Vizquel has never, even for just a year, been the best shortstop in his league.

	luke78:	Jan 23rd, 2012 at 14:20 GMT		1 point
	there are a lot of people who would disagree with ur claim that vizquel was not the best ss....