Can you name the MLB players that Bill James thinks has at least a 5% chance of reaching 3000 hits? by alexandjeremy

Can you name the MLB players that Bill James thinks has at least a 5% chance of reaching 3000 hits?

created by alexandjeremy

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Correctly named answers will show up below
Answers do not have to be guessed in order
Source: Bill James Handbook
**Team listed is 2013 team** Compiled from Bill James probability formula (List only includes players that have 5%+ chance)
Also try: Most Home Runs vs. All Star Pitchers (Since 2008)
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Team	Player	Chance
NYY		98%
LAA		66%
DET		58%
TEX		53%
NYY		44%
FA		35%
PHI		35%
NYY		32%
TOR		27%
CHC		24%
KCR		23%
MIA		20%
MIL		19%
LAD		19%
TEX		18%
DET		16%

Team	Player	Chance
PHI		16%
BAL		13%
ATL		12%
FA		12%
PIT		12%
MIL		12%
TOR		12%
NYM		12%
BAL		10%
CWS		10%
WAS		8%
PHI		8%
BOS		7%
LAD		6%
STL		5%
SFG		5%

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There are 23 comments for this game.
(Warning: comments may contain spoilers)

MLB 2013: Active Players & 3000 Hits Quiz

by alexandjeremy

Created Mar 4, 2013 in Sports
Game Plays 12,648

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	alexandjeremy:	Mar 4th, 2013 at 23:20 GMT		2 points
	Hint: first Free Agent last played for the Indians while the other last played for the Marlins. Enjoy!

	gustavpolo:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 00:40 GMT		-2 points
	Doesn't Jeter have a 100% chance of reaching 3000?

	mcx1110:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 05:44 GMT		8 points
	I was going to leave a snarky comment on how there is no way Juan Pierre could ever get 3,000 hits... but... he's only 800 away, he's 35, he's a singles hitter as it is... it could maybe happen!

	AKappy:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 16:47 GMT		10 points
	Damn it! Not used to seeing Ichiro with "NYY" next to his name.

	markymark5:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 18:05 GMT		2 points
	billy butler....idk about that

	mcbain:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 20:44 GMT		4 points
	I'm surprised Trout and Bryce Harper didn't make it.

	Remember_snood:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 21:18 GMT		7 points
	I think trout, harper and maybe some other people didn't make it because they've only played 1 or 2 seasons

	billwill11:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 21:22 GMT		4 points
	No no I think Butler could make it. Its a long stretch but he's got the potential.

	truk:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 23:05 GMT		2 points
	I can't believe Delmon Young is on this list, much less higher than Matt Kemp...

	cp3pdx:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 23:45 GMT		5 points
	If Delmon Young has an 8% chance to get 3000 then I have a 7.9999% chance

	alexandjeremy:	Mar 5th, 2013 at 23:52 GMT		3 points
	While I don't think Delmon Young will ever get close to 3000 hits either, he does already have 955 hits through his first 7 seasons, which is a season average of 176. That's pretty good

	ojoe:	Mar 6th, 2013 at 03:11 GMT		-4 points
	FOREST? What team is that?

	AKappy:	Mar 6th, 2013 at 19:41 GMT		3 points
	@alexandjeremy - 955 hits through 7 seasons is closer to 136 hits per season, not 176.

	alexandjeremy:	Mar 6th, 2013 at 21:35 GMT		-2 points
	Yes, but his 162 game (full) season average is 176 hits. One of his 7 years is including a year in which he only played 30 games.

	AKappy:	Mar 7th, 2013 at 15:54 GMT		5 points
	I don't think they count 162-game season averages in the record books. If they did, Griffey would be lookin' pretty good with 3,718 hits and 836 HR over 22 seasons.

	dtmich:	Mar 7th, 2013 at 20:09 GMT		4 points
	I would have loved to see their current hit totals pop up along with their %chance of reaching 3K

	schnu:	Mar 8th, 2013 at 00:43 GMT		0 points
	Obviously Jeter's already at 3K, but so is Ichiro, if you consider his Japan League hits

	DerekMorganRockz:	Mar 10th, 2013 at 23:29 GMT		1 point
	GOT A 87.5% DAMNIT

	McNeal:	Mar 11th, 2013 at 00:57 GMT		1 point
	Surprised Joey Votto isn't on the list

	leakyeyedpoodle:	Mar 11th, 2013 at 19:30 GMT		2 points
	Melky and Braun have their names on another list too...

	akabuca96:	Mar 13th, 2013 at 00:13 GMT		0 points
	So does alex rodriguez...to be honest, i don't even know if at this point he's going to be able to stay healthy enough...and just for the record robinson cano has absolutely no chance of clearing 3000...almost everyone in the right column has a better chance than he does.

	Wes_Mantooth:	Mar 15th, 2013 at 16:29 GMT		3 points
	I can't imagine how historians would perceive an era in which a guy like Delmon Young managed 3,000 hits.

	cjm1218:	Mar 31st, 2013 at 17:14 GMT		2 points
	I know its early, but why not trout or harper?