Can you name the active players who have the corresponding probability to be inducted into the Hall of Fame? by KingDobby

Probability	Player	Current Team
1.0000%		LAL
.9999%		SAS
.9985%		BOS
.9976%		MIA
.9976%		MIA
.9882%		DAL
.9836%		BOS
.9613%		NYK
.9382%		MIA
.8408%		LAC
.8408%		MIA
.8135%		DAL
.7209%		LAL
.7121%		SAS
.6898%		NYK
.6356%		LAL
.6027%		NYK
.5822%		CHINA
.5761%		LAL

Probability	Player	Current Team
.4069%		LAC
.3368%		DAL
.2491%		FA
.2428%		BKN
.2387%		LAC
.1883%		BKN
.1451%		SAS
.1141%		DAL
.1128%		BOS
.0830%		CHI
.0784%		LAL
.0673%		NYK
.0611%		CHI
.0511%		LAC
.0457%		PHX
.0314%		MEM
.0303%		OKC
.0276%		MIL

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There are 18 comments for this game.
(Warning: comments may contain spoilers)

Active NBA Hall of Fame Probability Quiz

by KingDobby

Created Oct 11, 2012 in Sports
Game Plays 1,576

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	Drewbear:	Oct 11th, 2012 at 18:55 GMT		5 points
	Hill is with the Clippers now, Mcgrady is going to China, & Arenas currently does not have a team

	Megatronix:	Oct 11th, 2012 at 19:08 GMT		3 points
	Hill is with the Clippers, McGrady retired and went to China & I believe Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas & Derek Fisher are free agents.

	Elysine:	Oct 11th, 2012 at 19:52 GMT		5 points
	You either have to multiply every number by 100 or take out the percent signs.

	IliniGreg0511:	Oct 11th, 2012 at 21:19 GMT		2 points
	What source are these projections from? How is Gilbert Arenas ahead of Dwill and how is Paul at 84%?! Williams has gone farther in the playoffs more often and had similar stats. I agree that cp3 should probably be ahead of him, but not by 60%

	kahuna63:	Oct 11th, 2012 at 21:50 GMT		3 points
	Kevin Durant doesn't rate....

	Theosaurus:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 02:34 GMT		3 points
	It is spelled Dwyane Wade, not Dwayne Wade.

	abernier3:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 04:17 GMT		7 points
	How are all those people ahead of Steve Nash? That's crazy. There's so much of this list that makes no sense...

	drj9879:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 06:39 GMT		0 points
	I stopped playing when I saw Tony Parker have a higher probability than Steve Nash and when Chris Bosh had a higher probability than Dwight Howard. What a stupid, stupid list.

	Golden:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 07:33 GMT		2 points
	For those who aren't familiar, basketball reference put together a formula, based on the achievements of people who have currently made the hall of fame and those that haven't, for the likelihood of someone making the hall of fame based on who has made it so far. They know it isn't perfect... some people with over 50% 'probability' haven't made it in, some under 50% probability have. But overall, its not a terrible measure.

	Golden:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 07:45 GMT		2 points
	The formula is based on 6 things: Height, PPG, RPG, APG, All-Star Game selections, Championships. Clearly, the reason Parker has a higher probability than Nash is because of his Championships. However, I'd argue that a better formula probably makes room for MVP awards as well.

	Golden:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 07:48 GMT		2 points
	Other important notes: Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of 400 NBA games played (no Durant, therefore), and The model was built using a pool of 750 players. Overall, 725 of the 750 players (96.7%) were correctly classified by the model (ie anyone over 50% should get in, anyone under should miss out)

	NYYanks:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 11:26 GMT		2 points
	Nash should be top 5 in this list

	Murf1013:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 15:04 GMT		2 points
	I feel like the quiz maker is getting punished because of the formula's imperfections. It's a good quiz; NBA Reference just needs to tweak the formula a bit. MVP and other Award shares would be a good thing to add in. And I may be missing something but I'm not sure why height is included.

	Barrk:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 15:07 GMT		3 points
	What does height have to do with how good your career has been?

	Murf1013:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 15:18 GMT		1 point
	Perhaps the biggest problem with the formula is that the NBA Hall of Fame is the least exclusive of any of the major sports HOFs. Pretty much everybody within reason eventually gets in. Therefore, the only way that Steve Nash doesn't get in is if he's caught up in some scandal, which seems more unlikely in basketball than football or baseball. So he's at 99.99999999% if he retires today. It is intriguing that his probability in their formula is so low. One thing to remember is that the formula isn't saying who SHOULD be in the HOF. It's saying based on the past, here are the chances that a player WILL make the hall of fame. This is an important difference. HOF voters don't always get it right. And often times the "fame" part seems to be as important as anything else, which is why you probably don't need to include ASG appearances if you want to determine the best players, but it may be a good idea to include it in this formula because popularity certainly seems to matter.

	Canes20:	Oct 12th, 2012 at 16:02 GMT		3 points
	Vince Carter over Steve Nash. What a joke

	chriskotx:	Oct 13th, 2012 at 02:43 GMT		3 points
	I've played this quiz at least twice before and would still like to ask: In what universe and under what circumstances does Tim Duncan have a .0001% chance of NOT making the HOF?

	KingDobby:	Nov 15th, 2012 at 18:07 GMT		1 point
	Yeah, the list is from basketball-reference.. I agree that it is definitely undermining some players.